People Are Moving From Blue America to Red America

Explaining migration patterns, and posing some questions that might be relevant for the 2024 election

People are moving from blue counties to red counties and from blue states to red states, and it’s probably going to make a difference in the 2024 election.

Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2023, the population of red counties — counties where Trump beat Biden in 2020 — grew by 3.52 million, or 2.7%. Over the same period, the population of blue counties declined by 180,000, or 0.1%.

There was a similar movement of population from blue states to red states: between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2023, the population of red states grew by 3.7 million, or 2.6%. The population of blue states declined by 354,000, or 0.2%.

All of these numbers show aggregate trends, including births, deaths, immigration to and from the US, and migration from one part of the US to another.

There seem to be both state- and county-level drivers to this trend. The places with the greatest increases in population are red counties in red states, which grew by a total of 2.91 million people (3.44%). Only blue counties in blue states lost people, shrinking by 973,000 people (0.71%)

Blue counties in red states and red counties in blue states both grew by smaller amounts, by 1.32% and 1.41% respectively.

Was This Just a Covid Thing?

There is a well-established narrative that people fled cities for rural and suburban areas when the pandemic was at its peak in 2020 and early 2021. Has the trend continued post-pandemic?

The Census Bureau has released population changes by year — with county-level population for July 1 of each year — which we can use to determine whether this was a short-term blip or a longer term trend.

The data here show a mixed picture. Red counties in red states have had large increases in population in all three years, with the largest increase coming in the most recent year. Blue counties in red states grew more in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 than in 2020-2021. And Blue counties in blue states lost a ton of people (719,000 people, or 0.53%) in 2020-2021, lost a smaller number (258,000) in 2021-2022, and were essentially flat in 2022-2023 (they gained 4,460 residents).

In other words, red counties and red states grew in population relative to blue counties and blue states in all three years; the differences are substantial; and the differences were not as large as the most recent years as they were early in the pandemic.

These differences are, in aggregate, greater than the differences by region of the country.

Growing States

Of the ten states with the most growth from 2020-2023, eight were red states in 2020:

1. Idaho (red)

2. Florida (red)

3. South Carolina (red)

4. Texas (red)

5. Montana (red)

6. Utah (red)

7. Delaware (blue)

8. North Carolina (red)

9. South Dakota (red)

10. Arizona (blue)

Shrinking States

Of the ten states that lost the highest share of population from 2020-2023, six were blue states in 2020:

1. New York (blue)

2. Illinois (blue)

3. Louisiana (red)

4. Alaska (red)

5. California (blue)

6. West Virginia (red)

7. Hawaii (blue)

8. Mississippi (red)

9. Michigan (blue)

10. Oregon (blue)

Growing Counties

Nine of the fastest growing counties with at least 50,000 people were red counties in 2020, and nine of the fastest growing counties were in red states:

1. Kaufman County, Texas (red)

2. Rockwall County, Texas (red)

3. Comal County, Texas (red)

4. Liberty County, Texas (red)

5. Sumter County, Florida (red)

6. Parker County, Texas (red)

7. Brunswick County, North Carolina (red)

8. St Johns County, Florida (red)

9. Jackson County, Georgia (red)

10. Hays County, Texas (blue)

The exceptions are #9 Jackson County, Georgia (in a state Biden won in 2020) and #10 Hays County, Texas (a county where Biden won 55.5% of the two-party vote). Notably, Trump won at least 62% of the vote in the nine fastest growing counties.

All ten counties are suburban southern counties, with six in Texas.

In total, an astounding 94 of the 100 fastest growing counties with at least 50,000 residents are red counties.

Shrinking Counties

Eight of the ten counties with the largest population declines from 2020-2023 are very blue counties (Biden won at least 70% of the two-party vote):

1. Bronx County, New York (blue)

2. San Francisco County, California (blue)

3. St Louis city, Missouri (blue)

4. Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana (red)

5. Kings County, New York (blue)

6. Queens County, New York (blue)

7. Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana (red)

8. Hinds County, Mississippi (blue)

9. McKinley County, New Mexico (blue)

10. Orleans Parish, Louisiana (blue)

These shrinking counties include a more diverse set of locations than the list of growing counties. Four are among the most expensive coastal places in the US (San Francisco and three boroughs of New York City; Manhattan is #11 on the list); two are large cities whose populations have been declining for decades (St. Louis and Orleans / New Orleans). McKinley County is predominantly Native American; Hinds County includes Jackson and is predominantly African American; Terrebonne and Calcasieu are both red counties with predominantly white populations in the southern part of Louisiana.

In total, 48 of the 100 fastest shrinking counties with at least 50,000 residents are blue counties, while 52 are red counties.

In short, the trend we see here is:

• people are leaving different types of counties, presumably for many different reasons

• people are disproportionately moving to red counties in red states

The Diverging Path of Highly Educated Counties

I looked at a number of county-level characteristics to find other trends that stand out. Are there other characteristics that seem to be attracting people?

And the answer is yes: people want to move to counties where a higher proportion of people have a college education¹.

Within red counties in red states, the fastest growing counties are those where a high percentage of young adults (40% of adults 25-34) have college degrees. The 76 highly educated red counties in red states grew by 6.26% between 2020 and 2023. By contrast, red counties in red states with fewer college degrees (below 30% of 25-34 year olds) grew by 2.9%.

The trend was similar — but less pronounced — among blue counties in red states and red counties in blue states.

Interestingly, blue counties in blue states showed the opposite trend: counties with low and medium education levels stayed roughly flat between 2020 and 2023, while counties where more people have college degrees saw the largest population losses of any group (1.23%).

Does This Spell Doom for Joe Biden?

A recent NY Times/Siena poll showed that only 87% of people who said they voted for Joe Biden in 2020 intend to vote for him this year.

That is not a good number for President Biden; he probably needs at least 95% support from his 2020 voters to win in 2024.

I suspect that there’s a connection between people moving away from blue counties in blue states and people moving away from their support of President Biden.

I’m no longer focused on politics² day-to-day, so I’ll throw out some questions I’d be asking if I were part of the Biden Harris team:

1. What can we say about the people who have moved across counties since 2020, and to what extent do politics play a role? Are they changing their voting patterns as they change homes?

2. What are movers moving away from? Are there ways that President Biden can address those issues, and/or refute negative aspects of current local policy or leadership that are (unintentionally) pushing people away?

3. What are voters moving toward? Are there ways that President Biden can articulate a vision for the country that lines up with the sort of things these voters want more of?

4. Can campaigns build models to estimate the likelihood of someone moving from their current city in the near future, and use it to improve their targeting?

5. Residents of New York City and San Francisco have recently voiced displeasure with their cities, with a substantial number indicating they might move away. While swing state big cities (e.g., Philadelphia, Detroit, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Atlanta) have different profiles, it’s likely that many also have strong inclinations to leave. The Philadelphia voter who supported Biden in 2020 and is considering moving to Texas or a far-out suburb is probably not someone guaranteed to vote for Joe Biden in 2024. What do these voters look like?

6. How does this relate to Covid policies? It’s well-established that blue counties and blue states tended to have stricter policies around Covid. And in some cases, the effects of these policies have been negative.

7. How might a stronger articulation of an abundance agenda address these sorts of liabilities? I’ll note that I’m personally excited about the vision of abundance, but I’m not yet sure if the political articulation is the best one.

Whether it’s the direct impact of millions of voters moving from one county to another one, or the underlying reasons that so many people are relocating, this is an important trend to understand.

1. I looked at the percentage of 25-34 year olds with a college degree.

2. I was the CEO of Change Research from 2017 to 2022.