Very interesting - I don't hear anyone else talking about this subject. Should minivans be grouped with the larger trucks and vans rather than the sedans?
Did you look at intoxication as a factor? I think BAC was a column in one of your datasets. Intoxication plus distraction (from mobile devices) could make things even worse.
Also, could red, purple, and blue be a proxy for rural, suburban, urban? Could it be about increasing vehicle miles being driven out in rural areas turned exurbs?
Lastly, what if it’s less about roads becoming more dangerous, and more about pedestrians on the roads more? Could factors like homelessness, night shift work, etc cause more people to be out at night when they might have been home in prior years?
Less than 10% of drivers are marked as intoxicated. I don't have a good sense of how often they are tested. The percentage of pedestrians marked as intoxicated is actually higher than the percentage of drivers. I'll take a closer look at that!
Red/purple/blue counties are indeed something of a proxy for rural, suburban, and urban, but most states are a mix of all types of counties. And the state increase is bigger than the county increase.
And that's a good question about roads being more frequented by pedestrians. Someone else commented that his experience (as a police officer) is that a huge percentage of victims are homeless; that's something worth looking into. I'd be a bit skeptical that night shift work has increased hugely in a decade, but it's worth a look as well.
The median victim sounds like a homeless person to me. Middle-aged male. Walking on a principal arterial at 9pm in an urban, lower-income zip code. No crosswalk. No sidewalk. Disproportionately intoxicated. HUD says the number of unsheltered individuals went up 56k (31%) from 2010 to 2023. I bet that's understating it.
Thanks! I'm going to look into the data for this. I will note, though, that some of the states with the lowest rates of homelessness (e.g., MS, SC) have very high rates of pedestrian fatalities.
Someone walking on a fast-moving arterial at 9pm probably doesn’t have a car, which in the US correlates with extreme poverty. Even if they’re not homeless, perhaps they're hungry. That could explain the blue/red divide. Maybe in blue states there's more food for the needy, or food more readily offered without preconditions like being sober. So people don’t have to spend hours wandering all over town looking for food.
Very interesting - I don't hear anyone else talking about this subject. Should minivans be grouped with the larger trucks and vans rather than the sedans?
You could group them that way! It wouldn't make a huge difference, though -- they're at most a couple percent of vehicles.
Did you look at intoxication as a factor? I think BAC was a column in one of your datasets. Intoxication plus distraction (from mobile devices) could make things even worse.
Also, could red, purple, and blue be a proxy for rural, suburban, urban? Could it be about increasing vehicle miles being driven out in rural areas turned exurbs?
Lastly, what if it’s less about roads becoming more dangerous, and more about pedestrians on the roads more? Could factors like homelessness, night shift work, etc cause more people to be out at night when they might have been home in prior years?
Good questions!
Less than 10% of drivers are marked as intoxicated. I don't have a good sense of how often they are tested. The percentage of pedestrians marked as intoxicated is actually higher than the percentage of drivers. I'll take a closer look at that!
Red/purple/blue counties are indeed something of a proxy for rural, suburban, and urban, but most states are a mix of all types of counties. And the state increase is bigger than the county increase.
And that's a good question about roads being more frequented by pedestrians. Someone else commented that his experience (as a police officer) is that a huge percentage of victims are homeless; that's something worth looking into. I'd be a bit skeptical that night shift work has increased hugely in a decade, but it's worth a look as well.
The median victim sounds like a homeless person to me. Middle-aged male. Walking on a principal arterial at 9pm in an urban, lower-income zip code. No crosswalk. No sidewalk. Disproportionately intoxicated. HUD says the number of unsheltered individuals went up 56k (31%) from 2010 to 2023. I bet that's understating it.
70% of Portland victims are homeless. https://www.opb.org/article/2022/02/03/70-percent-pedestrians-hit-cars-portland-were-experiencing-homelessness/#:~:text=A%20report%20out%20Wednesday%20from,experiencing%20homelessness%20when%20they%20died.
Thanks! I'm going to look into the data for this. I will note, though, that some of the states with the lowest rates of homelessness (e.g., MS, SC) have very high rates of pedestrian fatalities.
Someone walking on a fast-moving arterial at 9pm probably doesn’t have a car, which in the US correlates with extreme poverty. Even if they’re not homeless, perhaps they're hungry. That could explain the blue/red divide. Maybe in blue states there's more food for the needy, or food more readily offered without preconditions like being sober. So people don’t have to spend hours wandering all over town looking for food.